WORLD OIL PRICES (February 20-24, 2023 trading days)
The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has decreased by about $2.30/bbl. MOPS gasoline, diesel and kerosene have also decreased by around $2.60, $4.20 and $4.70 per barrel, respectively.
Reasons for the Price Adjustment1
- Oil futures fell in the latest week as minutes from the US Federal Reserve’s last meeting suggested officials continued to anticipate further interest rate hikes to bring inflation down to their 2% target, fueling market concerns over the risk of a recession.
o Additionally, a stronger US dollar, now at its highest level since early January against a basket of world currencies, weighed on dollar-denominated assets including oil.
- A large build in US crude inventories put further downward pressure on oil prices. US commercial crude stockpiles surged by 7.65 million barrels on week to 479.04 million barrels in the week to Feb. 17, the highest outright level since end-May 2021, US EIA data showed.
o Stockpiles have climbed more than 58 million barrels since the end of last year. US SPR stocks stood unchanged for a fifth week at 371.58 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 17, the lowest level since 1983.
- Today marks the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, with the markets watching for any signs of further escalation in geopolitical tensions. EU countries failed to sign off on a much-anticipated 10th package of sanctions against Russia, missing a planned deadline to have them in place for the anniversary. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Feb. 21 the government’s decision to cut crude production by 500,000 b/d currently only covers March but may be extended, the Russian state news agency TASS reported.
- Asian gasoline crack extended losses amid expectation of more import more gasoline in March to meet Ramadan seasonal demand.
o India’s February gasoline production moderated while exports could be firm due to low domestic demand as harsh winter weather persisted.
o Singapore’s commercial stockpiles of light distillates, which include gasoline, reformate, and naphtha, fell by 11.4% to 15.58 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 23, still up 7.9% on year.
- Asian gasoil crack extended losses as the East-West arbitrage economics remained weak. China’s gasoil exports expected to be lower in March. Inventories continued to climb in major global hubs.
- On regional supply/demand, China’s gasoil/diesel exports were expected to come down in February, with today’s S&P Global Commodities at Sea flows data putting the volume at around 1.2 million mt for now. March exports are expected to decline further as domestic demand picks up slowly after the Lunar New Year holidays.
FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso depreciated versus the US dollar by
P0.07 to P55.08 from P55.01 in previous week.
DOMESTIC OIL PRICES
Effective 28 February 2023, the oil companies implemented a per liter decrease of P0.70 for gasoline, P1.30 for diesel and P1.80 for kerosene.
These resulted to a year-to-date net decrease for diesel at P2.40/liter and kerosene at P2.30/liter. Gasoline on the other hand has a net increase of P5.30/liter.
For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.
Other recommended reference sites:
• http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
• http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
• https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price
For more information, call the
Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph
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1 1 Asia-Pacific Weekly Recap 24 February 2023 by S&P Global Platts Analytics