WORLD OIL PRICES (November 21-25, 2022 trading days)
The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has decreased by almost $6.70/bbl. MOPS gasoline, diesel and kerosene have also decreased by about $3.40, $9.50 and $6.00 per barrel, respectively.
Reasons for the Price Adjustment1
- Oil futures extended losses during the week amid growing demand concerns.
- China reported another record high of daily COVID-19 infections, surpassing the mid-April high in Shanghai. Now, the capital city of Beijing saw three coronavirus deaths in Nov. 19-20, China’s first documented COVID-19 deaths since May.
- On the supply front, a Russian crude price cap currently being discussed by the G7 group of nations could potentially be set in the $65-$70/b range, higher than earlier reports of around $60/b, and lowering the risks of a near-term hit to Russian supply. US officials suggested price caps to be set between the marginal cost of production for Russian oil and pre-pandemic prices to incentivize Russia to continue producing and exporting.
- On Asian gasoline, elevated exports from China at a time when its domestic demand is capped by surging COVID-19 cases and fresh mobility restrictions will continue to put downward pressure on prices moving forward. While this week’s trade flows data put China’s November gasoline exports at slightly below 1.6 million mt., the latest Chinese customs data showed that gasoline exports rose by 51.2% on month to 1.00 million mt in October.
- On the inventory front, US-EIA data of gasoline stocks rose by 3.06 million barrels to 211.00 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 18, still down 0.2% on year. Singapore’s commercial stockpiles of light distillates, which include gasoline, reformate, and naphtha, fell by 1.4% on week to 12.98 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 23, the lowest since mid-April, but inventories remained 18.1% higher on year.
- For Asian gasoil, a surge in China’s gasoil outflows, as state refiners ramp up exports to capture strong margins through quota utilization, has weighed on Asia’s gasoil markets. This week’s trade flows data put China’s November gasoil outflows at about 2million mt for now. In October, total gasoil exports from China dropped 39% on month to 1.06 million mt, customs data showed.
- The Netherlands returned as the top destination, receiving 198,000 mt, up 67.9% from September, as refinery strikes in France created demand in the West for prompt arrival cargoes. It remains unclear whether China will continue to increase gasoil exports to Europe for the rest of the year as the arbitrage window has narrowed. Yet it is certain that China will elevate total gasoil exports in November and December. Platts anticipate that the volume will likely jump to more than 2 million mt per month.
FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso appreciated versus the US dollar by P0.29 to P57.09 from P57.38 in previous week.
DOMESTIC OIL PRICES
Effective 29 November 2022, the oil companies implemented a per liter decrease in gasoline by P0.85, diesel by P3.95 and kerosene by P2.65.
These resulted to the year-to-date total adjustments to stand at a net increase of P16.90/liter for gasoline, P29.90/liter for diesel, and P25.20/liter for kerosene.
For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.
Other recommended reference sites:
• http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
• http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
• https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price
For more information, call the
Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph
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1 Asia Pacific Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics